Technical analysis is an art form of making predictions of the future stock price based on past market data, price and volume. Unlike fundamental analysis (which analyzes company financials), technical analysis follows trends, charts, and indicators to pinpoint trends and trading opportunities.
1. The Basics: What is a Stock Chart?
A stock chart is a graphical presentation of the price of a stock over time. The most common types are:
- Line Charts: Displays the closing prices with a line between them. Simple but limited.
- Bar Charts: Show open, high, low, and close (OHLC) of each period.
- Candlestick Charts: Closely related to bar charts but much more intuitive. The Green/white candles represent uptrend while the red/black candles represent downtrend.
2. Trend Lines: Spotting the Direction
Trend lines are useful in determining the direction and strength of a trend.
- Uptrend: A rising line that connects the higher lows. Buyers are in control.
- Downtrend: A falling line that connects the lower highs. Sellers are dominating.
- Sideways/Rangebound: Price moves horizontally between support/resistance.
Pro Tip: The steeper the trend line, the less sustainable the trend. Traders should take note of that.
3. Support and Resistance: The Floor and Ceiling
- Support: A price level at which there is sufficient buying interest to stop further decline.
- Resistance: A price level where selling pressure stops further increase.
- Breakouts: When the price breaks through resistance or support, usually a sign of a new trend.
- How to Use: Buy (long) near support and sell (short) near resistance, but always study carefully.
4. Moving Averages: Smoothing Out the Noise
- Moving Averages (MAs): Smooth price series to show market trends.
- Simple Moving Average (SMA): The average price over a set period, e.g., 50-day SMA.
- Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Gives more weight to recent price action.
Common Strategies:
- Crossover: Buy when the 50-day crosses above the 200-day (Golden Cross). Sell when the opposite happens (Death Cross).
- Dynamic Support/Resistance: Prices often bounce off MAs during trends.
5. Relative Strength Index (RSI): Measuring Momentum
RSI is a momentum oscillator ranging from 0 to 100.
- Overbought: RSI > 70, indicates pullback/reversal.
- Oversold: RSI < 30, indicates bounce/reversal.
- Divergence: Price makes new high/low but RSI does not, signaling weakness.
Pro Tip: RSI works best in trending markets. It can stay overbought/oversold for long periods.
6. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
A trend-following momentum indicator made of:
- MACD Line: Difference between the 12-EMA and 26-EMA.
- Signal Line: 9-EMA of the MACD Line.
- Histogram: Difference between MACD and Signal Line.
How to Use:
- Crossover: Buy when MACD crosses above Signal Line, sell when it crosses below.
- Zero Line Crossover: Above zero = bullish momentum; below zero = bearish momentum.
- Divergence: Similar to RSI, may indicate reversal.
7. Putting It All Together: A Simple Strategy
- Determine trend with trend lines and MAs.
- Identify support/resistance for entries and exits.
- Check RSI for overbought/oversold conditions.
- Use MACD for momentum confirmation.
- Always manage risk with stop-loss orders.
Example:
- Stock in an uptrend when price is above 200-day MA.
- Pulls back to support near 50-day MA.
- RSI oversold when below 30.
8. Limitations of Technical Analysis
- Not foolproof: Past records don’t guarantee future results.
- Subjectivity: Traders may interpret the same chart differently.
- False signals: Indicators can mislead.
- Always apply proper risk management.
9. How to Start Practicing
- Use free charting platforms like TradingView, Yahoo Finance, or Thinkorswim.
- Paper trade: practice without risking real money.
- Focus on a few indicators to avoid “indicator overload.”
- Learn basic patterns like Head and Shoulders, Double Tops/Bottoms, etc.
Key Takeaways
- Technical analysis uses charts and indicators to predict future price movements.
- Trend lines, support/resistance, and moving averages help identify trends.
- RSI and MACD are popular momentum indicators.
- No single perfect indicator—use multiple for confirmation.
- Regular practice and discipline are essential for success.
Pro Tip
Start with higher timeframes (like daily charts) to avoid market noise. As you gain experience, explore shorter timeframes.
When using technical analysis, be patient and keep practicing. Don’t rely only on TA—combine it with proper risk management to make better trading decisions.