The Smart Investors

USD/JPY – Bullish Outlook Amid Political Uncertainty (September 23, 2025)

Current Price: 148.00
Trend: Bullish
Resistance Levels: 148.50, 149.00
Support Levels: 147.50, 147.00

Technical Overview:
USD/JPY is testing the 148.00 level. A break above 148.50 could push prices higher in the short term.

Fundamental Drivers:
UBS raised its USD/JPY forecast to 143 for the end of 2025, citing political uncertainty in Japan.

Trade Idea:

• Buy Entry: Above 148.50
• Take Profit: 149.00
• Stop Loss: Below 148.00

I jumped on that USD/JPY buy above 148.50 and it was sweet.

Closed around 148.95 and took some profit. Nothing big, but better than nothing.

Did anyone else catch the yen move? I bought once it broke 148.60 and it went straight into profit. I got nervous near 149 and took it off. Happy with that one.

Missed the short setup… ended up taking a cheeky long scalp instead. Got out fast though. This zone around 149 is messy, feels like anything can happen.

Shorted near 149 and it actually worked. Closed around 148.65, nothing crazy but it paid.
Happy I didn’t overstay, this pair whips around too much.

USD/JPY — October 3, 2025
Bias: Slight Bearish ↓ / Pullback bias
Resistance: 149.20 ↑, 149.50 ↑
Support: 147.80 ↓, 147.20 ↓

Rationale:
- Yen often gains when USD weakens.
- Limited upside above 149.20 ↑ unless strong catalyst.
- Possible drop back to 147.80 ↓.

Trade Plan:

• Short ↓ near 149.20 → target 147.80
• Long ↑ only if clean break above 149.50 → target 150.20
• Stop Loss: Short stop ~149.70, Long stop ~149.20

Peaktrader wrote: Thu Oct 02, 2025 9:38 am USD/JPY — October 3, 2025
Bias: Slight Bearish ↓ / Pullback bias
Resistance: 149.20 ↑, 149.50 ↑
Support: 147.80 ↓, 147.20 ↓

Rationale:
- Yen often gains when USD weakens.
- Limited upside above 149.20 ↑ unless strong catalyst.
- Possible drop back to 147.80 ↓.

Trade Plan:

• Short ↓ near 149.20 → target 147.80
• Long ↑ only if clean break above 149.50 → target 150.20
• Stop Loss: Short stop ~149.70, Long stop ~149.20

I was eyeing the 149 zone as our forecast said, but we never got there.

Instead, price pulled back toward 147.50, so I entered a short there for a small move just now.

Peaktrader wrote: Thu Oct 02, 2025 9:38 am USD/JPY — October 3, 2025
Bias: Slight Bearish ↓ / Pullback bias
Resistance: 149.20 ↑, 149.50 ↑
Support: 147.80 ↓, 147.20 ↓

Rationale:
- Yen often gains when USD weakens.
- Limited upside above 149.20 ↑ unless strong catalyst.
- Possible drop back to 147.80 ↓.

Trade Plan:

• Short ↓ near 149.20 → target 147.80
• Long ↑ only if clean break above 149.50 → target 150.20
• Stop Loss: Short stop ~149.70, Long stop ~149.20

Yen setup is disappointing so far. We expected a move from 149, but price is stuck in 147s.

Tried a small short nearer what looked like resistance on my chart, got stopped, this one is very tricky.